1. Nothing Is InevitableRemember how we were all told Affordable Care Act (ACA) repeal would be on the President’s desk on Inauguration Day? After all, Republicans had already voted for it several dozen times, most recently in January 2016 in an attempt to override President Obama’s veto. Now that they had control of the White House, what could stop them?
As I pointed out in my Health Affairs Blog post last December predicting ACA repeal would fail, however, there’s a difference between making a political statement and enacting real policy. The latter is invariably complex and time-consuming, creating vulnerabilities and pitfalls both known and unknown at the outset. While a cornerstone of tried and true policymaking is to leverage the “strategy of inevitability”—more than seven years ago, the ACA campaign itself vigorously deployed just such a strategy—the underlying premise of that strategy is always inherently false.
So the next time someone tells you you’ve got to “get on board” because a certain bill is guaranteed to pass, you’ll know you have other options, and that person probably knows it too.
2. Stakeholders Matter
While, in my prior piece, I did lament the health care community’s dormancy in the aftermath of the November 8 election, I also anticipated that it would eventually wake up to resist broad ACA repeal. And resist we did. Virtually every hospital and hospital group, every physician group, nurses, patient groups representing the young, old, disease-stricken, and disabled, and many others fervently opposed AHCA. They added analysis of AHCA’s impact on them, as Governors did regarding its impact on their states. At the end of the day, this was simply a bad bill. Stakeholders figured it out and acted when it counted.
Republicans in Congress, believing they had a political mandate to move quickly, truly thought they could ignore these objections. But the stakeholder message spread and town halls filled up; protests lined district offices; opposition letters, phone calls, and tweets, poured in. Ultimately, on the day AHCA was originally supposed to get its final House vote, a Quinnipiac University poll came out showing only 17 percent of the public supported the bill, while 56 percent opposed it, a startling gap rarely seen in any bona fide political polling.
By the time Republicans realized they had to start paying attention to stakeholder concerns, it was too late. The bill was already drafted and introduced and, as the White House and House leadership repeatedly threatened, members were going to be forced to vote ‘up’ or ‘down.’ Clearly, for too many by then, ‘down’ was looking like a better choice than ‘up.’
And 3 more good ones.....